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Market Prep & Analysis 4/15 - 4/19

by NewRealms • Apr 14, 2024 • 24
edited by NewRealms on Apr 14, 2024

Weekly Market Update

Dear NVSTly Members,

We hope this newsletter finds you well. Here’s your weekly digest of key happenings in the US stock market and futures trading, tailored just for you.


Market Recap

Inflation disappoints on the upside in U.S. and on the downside in China

The major equity benchmarks retreated for the week amid heightened fears of conflict in the Middle East and some signs of persistent inflation pressures that pushed long-term Treasury yields higher. Large-caps held up better than small-caps, with the Russell 2000 Index suffering its biggest daily decline in almost two months on Wednesday and falling back into negative territory for the year to date. Growth stocks also fared better than value shares, which were weighed down by interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), regional banks, housing, and utilities. The primary factor weighing on sentiment appeared to be Wednesday morning’s release of the Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI) data, which showed headline prices rising by 0.36% in March, right in line with February’s increase, in contrast with consensus hopes for a small decline from the month-earlier pace. A rebound in the price of medical services (from -0.1% in February to +0.6% in March) was partly to blame, as was a continuing sharp rise in transportation services costs, which rose 10.7% over the preceding 12 months—fed largely by increases in the cost of car insurance. Overall inflation rose 3.5% over the preceding 12 months, its biggest gain since September.

Supercore inflation hits highest level in almost a year

More concerning may have been a material increase in so-called supercore inflation, which tracks services prices excluding energy and housing costs, which policymakers have acknowledged are a lagging indicator of overall inflation trends. Supercore inflation jumped 0.7% in March and 4.8% over the past 12 months, substantially higher than expectations and its biggest increase in 10 months. In the wake of the report, futures markets began pricing in roughly a 20% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting versus roughly 50% before its release. The week was a busy one for commentary from central bank officials—with 11 scheduled to speak, and they seemed to confirm a change in their perspective following the CPI release. In particular, Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin said that the latest data did not increase his confidence in disinflation, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that the recent data argue against an imminent need to cut rates. Thursday’s release of producer price inflation data seemed to help calm inflation fears and help equity markets recoup a portion of their losses. Producer prices rose 0.2% in March, a tick below expectations and well under February’s 0.6% increase. Input goods prices fell 0.1%, continuing a recent pattern of goods deflation that had been interrupted by a 1.2% surge in April.

Reports of possible imminent strike on Israel send investors flocking to oil and U.S. dollar

Stocks pulled back sharply to end the week, however, in the wake of reports that Iran was preparing to directly attack facilities on Israeli soil for the first time. Oil prices rose on the news, along with the U.S. dollar, which is typically viewed as a “safe haven” in times of international turmoil. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, spiked to its highest level since November. The consumer inflation data helped drive the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to its highest intraday level since November before Treasuries rallied on Friday as investors sought out U.S. dollar-based assets. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.) There's cautious tone in the tax-exempt municipal bond market as investors were expected to liquidate some holdings ahead of the April 15 tax deadline. Both investment-grade and high yield corporate bonds wavered following the CPI report, but issuance appeared to be met with continued healthy demand.


 Heat Maps & Performance


Upcoming Economic Events


Technical Analysis 


Market News

COST increases dividend

CPI comes in hot

AAPL announces M4 chips

META details Artemis AI chip

Earnings

TLRY Tilray

EPS: $(0.00)  vs  $(0.05) est

SALES: $188.34M  vs  $198.50M est

DAL Delta Airlines

EPS: $0.45  vs  $0.36 est

SALES: $13.75B  vs  $12.57B est

JPM JP Morgan Chase

EPS: $4.44 vs  $4.15 est

SALES: $49.10B  vs  $41.84B est

C Citigroup

EPS: $1.58 vs  $1.20 est

SALES: $21.104B  vs  $20.393B est

AEHR Aehr Test Systems

EPS: $(0.03) vs  $(0.04) est

SALES: $7.600M  vs  $7.609M est

FAST Fastenal

EPS: $0.52  vs  $0.53 est

SALES: $1.90B  vs  $1.91B est

STZ Constellation Brands

EPS: $2.26  vs  $2.08 est

SALES: $2.14B  vs  $2.10B est

WFC Wells Fargo

EPS: $1.20  vs  $1.09 est

SALES: $20.86B  vs  $20.20B est

 Insider Transactions

FDX - Frederick W. Smith - Executive Chairman

Shares sold:  113,400   |   Value: $31,105,700   |   Avg Cost: $274.30

NVDA - Mark A. Stevens - Director

Shares sold:  22,700   |   Value: $19,975,240  |   Avg Cost: $879.97

MSTR - Michael J. Saylor - CEO

Shares sold:  10,000   |   Value: $14,790,098  |   Avg Cost: $1,479.01

DELL - Richard J. Rothberg - General Counsel

Shares sold:  93,954   |   Value: $12,491,184 |   Avg Cost: $132.95

GME - Lawrence Cheng - Director

Shares bought:  10,000   |   Value: $112,238 |   Avg Cost: $11.22

COIN - Frederick E. Ehrsam  - Director

Shares sold:  16,380   |   Value: $4,196,390 |   Avg Cost: $256.19

NET - Matthew Prince  - CEO

Shares sold:  157,152   |   Value: $14,995,769 |   Avg Cost: $95.42

TKO - Vincent K. Mcmahon  - Director

Shares sold:  3,496,694   |   Value: $311,240,733 |   Avg Cost: $89.01

Rick Larson  (D)

UPS - Sale - $1,001 - $15,000

FDX - Purchase - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Apr 4, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 10, 2024

Michael C. Burgess  (R)

ILMN - Sale - $1,001 - $15,000

XOM - Sale- $15,001 - $50,000

Traded: Mar 11, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 10, 2024

Lloyd Doggett  (D)

HD - Purchase - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Mar 21, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 9, 2024

IBM - Purchase - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Mar 11, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 9, 2024

JNJ - Purchase - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Mar 5, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 9, 2024

Mark Dr Green  (R)

NGL - Sale - $100,001 - $250,000

Traded: Apr 1, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 7, 2024

Josh Gottheimer  (D)

AAPL - Sale - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Mar 22, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 7, 2024

SQ - Purchase - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Mar 21, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 7, 2024

AMD - Purchase - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Mar 18, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 7, 2024

TSLA - Sale - $1,001 - $15,000

Traded: Mar 15, 2024  |   Filed: Apr 7, 2024


Community Corner

- We will be hosting edicational classes soon! More information on that to follow! 

Remember, successful trading starts with staying informed. We’re committed to keeping you in the loop and enhancing your trading experience. Happy Trading!

- NVSTly Team

Disclaimer: Trading involves risk and is not suitable for everyone. Consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

 

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